There are barely four weeks left until the November 3 elections in the United States (USA) and the polls are not very promising for the current tenant of the White House, the Republican Donald trump.
According to a survey of Financial Times (FT) if the elections were held today Joe biden, the Democratic candidate who was vice president of the United States during the two terms of Barack Obama, would obtain 279 votes in the electoral colleges in front of Trump 125. The 134 remaining delegates would be divided between one candidate and another.
Taking a closer look at it, Biden would have 190 polling stations insured while Donald Trump would have managed to guarantee himself 83. To arrive at the sum of the 279 mentioned above, Biden would also have 89 favorable voters (or delegates). And Trump would reach the 125 of which we spoke thanks to the fact that he has under his belt another 42 voters who would favor him and that would be added to the 83 that he already has insured.
In between, there would be 134 delegates who had not yet decided their vote and that they would be distributed in the states of Texas, Florida, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Iowa and Maine’s electoral district number 2 where the candidates would maintain a fierce fight to win the vote of their respective electors. In the aforementioned states, the currency could fall in favor of one or the other if the elections were held today (always according to the survey of the FT).
In addition to the aforementioned survey FT, a poll prepared by CNN reveals that the Democratic candidate, Joe biden, has a 16 percentage point advantage over US President Donald Trump heading into the November 3 elections.
The survey, carried out last week, after the first electoral debate, indicates that 57% of likely voters would vote for Biden, compared to 41% who would vote for Trump. And it has been released along with the information that a little more than 4 million Americans have already exercised the early vote, with just under a month left for the elections, compared to the 75,000 who had done so at this time in the 2016 elections (which suggests a possible record turnout).
CNN survey data collected by the agency Efe indicate that Biden has doubled his lead over Trump since late August, since then he got 8 points (with a vote intention of 51%, compared to 43% of the president).
This survey, which also takes into account likely voters, was carried out between Sunday and last Friday, which is why it already collects the opinion of voters after it became known that Trump had contracted Covid-19.
While Biden’s national advantage is notable, pollsters pay more attention to polls from certain key states, as results from a handful of states are seen as determining factors.
A similar situation occurred in the 2016 elections, in which the polls gave an advantage in the intention to vote to the Democratic candidate, Hillary clinton, but he lost the elections to Trump despite having won the popular vote.
In the US electoral system, the election of the president takes place through the Electoral CollegeTherefore, it is necessary for the candidate to win in a minimum of states to obtain enough votes for his proclamation, although in other states his victory has been much higher in terms of number of votes.
The CNN poll was conducted by the SSRS company from October 1 to October 4, with a sample of 1,001 likely voters and has a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points.
What does this mean? That Donald Trump doesn’t have a minute to waste. That is why when it was made public last Friday that the US president had tested positive for Covid-19, that he was ill, and that he had entered the Walter Reed military hospital instead of following the doctors’ recommendations, Trump preferred to deal with the disease in his own way.
The diagnosis was known on Friday first thing in the morning in Spain (late at night on the East coast of the US) and that same day but already around 11 p.m. Spanish time (5 p.m. in New York), his hospitalization was announced.
Donald trump, who is 74 years old, who has shown his skepticism about Covid, and whose management of the disease has been questioned by the American population, could not appear before the public opinion as a weak leader and defeated by a disease that has undervalued. Trump does not have a minute to lose in this final stretch towards what would be his second term as US president. That is why he continues with his forward flight and that is why 24 hours after being discharged from hospital he has published 28 tweets on his official account (and going up). To show that he is still in top shape and that “Covid does not dominate his life”, to use his own words.
But is he really that good? He continues to try to clear up the doubts and that is why as soon as he arrived at the White House he has once again broadcast a video through his official Twitter account in which he addresses US citizens.
– Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 5, 2020
“I just left Walter Reed Hospital and it is a really very special place: the doctors, the nurses, the emergency services … I have learned a lot about the coronavirus and I can assure you of one thing: ‘Don’t let it dominate you. No be afraid of him. You’re going to beat him. ‘ We have the best medical equipment, the best medicines, all recently developed. And you are going to beat it. I was not feeling very well and two days later I was able to leave the hospital. Two days later I was feeling great, much better than a long time ago, I said it recently. Better than 20 years ago, “he insists.
And he continues with his message downplaying the virus: “Don’t let it dominate you, don’t let it take control of your lives. Don’t let that happen. We are the best country in the world. We are going back to work, we are going to face it. As your leader, I’ve had to. I know there are risks involved, but I had to. I have faced it and I have captained the situation. No one who is considered a leader would have stopped doing what I have done. And I know that it involves certain risks, that there is a certain danger, but it’s okay, “he says.
“Now I’m better and maybe I’m immuneI don’t know, but don’t let it dominate your lives. Go out on the streets, be careful … We have the best medicines in the world and they have all come out very quickly and they will all be approved and the vaccines will arrive at any moment. Thank you very much and thank you to Walter Reed Hospital, what a team of professionals. Thank you very much “, he concludes.
This message from Trump comes hours after Facebook and Twitter deleted a post of his in which he claimed that “the coronavirus is less lethal than the flu.” “Every year many people die from the flu. Are we going to close our country?” Asked the US president in a message that appeared on both social networks and was deleted shortly after it was published.
There are those who question whether Trump has really fallen ill with coronavirus or not. If you are using it as the last electoral cartridge. It is not known if it will be the medications that he has received in the hospital or that his immune system has reacted in an outstanding way against Covid-19. The point is that the US president still appears somewhat pale in the videos he publishes, but without a mask. As if the coronavirus made him look like a movie.